STOREP CONFERENCES, STOREP 2016 - Engines of growth and paths of development in the minds of analysts, policy makers and human beings

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FROM LONG-TERM GROWTH TO SECULAR STAGNATION. A THEORETICAL COMPARISON BETWEEN RÉGULATION THEORY, MARXIST APPROACHES AND PRESENT MAINSTREAM INTERPRETATIONS
Giovanni Scarano

Last modified: 2016-06-11

Abstract


Since 2013 various eminent mainstream economists, including Fisher and Summers, have proposed reviving the doctrine of “secular stagnation”, initially introduced by Alvin Hansen in 1934. The main reasons Summers adduced for this revival were the massive financial expansion without overheating in the real economy before the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the absence of an economic upturn after the crisis. According to these authors, the only explanation for this trend could be a negative Wicksellian natural rate of interest, produced by an excess of saving over investment at any positive interest rate. In these approaches, the dynamic of this disproportion would be explained, in a typical context of neoclassical growth theory, by changes in demographic dynamics.

But the idea that the real world economy has entered into a new stagnation trend is really the other side of the coin in explaining the extraordinary long-term growth that characterised the three decades in the aftermath of World War II. The reasons for this peculiar phase in world economic history and the end it met with in the 1970s has long been  the main research objective of Régulation Theory, which found accumulation regimes and corresponding modes of regulation as the major determinants of the features of economic growth and development. In this theoretical context, secular stagnation could be read as the last effect of the neoliberal accumulation regime that emerged from the crisis of the previous Fordist accumulation regime in the seventies.

In the paper the theoretical explanations of the new secular stagnation theory are compared with those of Régulation theory and with the original Marxist approaches that, starting from Marxian reproduction schemes, initially inspired the French régulation theorists. In particular, analysis focuses on the thesis that Keynesian economic policies were a peculiar mode of régulation that was functional to the Fordist accumulation regime in exiting from the stagnation produced by the Great Depression in the thirties, but that they lost their effectiveness because of changes in the accumulation regime in the seventies.

Keywords


Equilibrium Interest Rate; Business Cycles; Crisis; Rate of Profit; Profitability

Full Text: Paper Scarano